September 16 2008, the opposition movement’s new national day, was announced to be the day the roots of the Malaysian establishment would shake and mass defections from the government coalition would be announced. The blogging community and opposition coalition leaks had the tally at more than 30 MPs ready to jump sides, and the Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition ready to sweep in and take power. But the day came and went with out much of the announced ruckus. Certainly no mass defections.

Within the UMNO ruling party change appeared to be brewing with a struggle for future leadership as the unpopular Abdullah Badawi reluctantly announced he would hand over power. But the great power struggle died in round 1, as the nomination process showed overwhelming support for the favourite, and no other candidate was able to get the required nominations. No surprises, no great change.

So did no change ever come, and has the opposition movement lost its momentum? I’m not so sure. Change might not come as fast as what many people had hoped and Anwar seemed to promise. The boldness of the first months might have needed to be tempered somewhat. I don’t think we’ll see anything like the colour revolutions just yet. That option passed with the September 16 deadline.

There has however been some movement. 2008 did see some important events that didn’t go in favour of the political establishment. The great landmark was the general election in which the Barisan Nasional ruling coalition lost its 2/3 parliament majority for the first time in the history of the young country. Then two much publicized by-elections have turned out in the favour of the opposition. A few defections there has been as well, most recently last week in Perak where a key parliament member switched sides.

Also, Abdullah Badawi has not been the defence player Mahathir once was. His feeble efforts at stopping Anwar from reentering the parliament, censoring online criticism and other issues have not been charactericed by the same decisiveness with which Mahathir cracked down on Anwar in 1998. He has simply not been able to apply the authoritarian measures of his predecessor with the same effectiveness. Election results and other signs seem to indicate that public support is slipping, and UMNO’s efforts to regain it just don’t have the punch they need to.

These are all among the things adding credibility to the opposition, and it looks like Anwar and his compatriots have been able to build the most credible opposition block Malaysia has yet seen. Not fulfilling outrageous promises of seizing power right away doesn’t seem to have killed the movement at the outset, but will they be able to avoid disilusionment and apathy as the months go?

It will also be interesting to see what happens when Abdullah Badawi steps down from power. Can the new UMNO leadership under Najib Razak bring the initiative back to the Barisan Nasional coalition, or will the game be kept on their half of the court?

Recommended further reading:

• Deborah Loh / The Nut Graph: “Testing time for Pakatan Rakyat“
• Deborah Loh / The Nut Graph: “Swing time in Kuala Terengganu“
• Deborah Loh / The Nut Graph: “Lessons from Kuala Terengganu“
• Leslie Lau / The Malaysian Insider: “Anwar Ibrahim, probably Malaysia’s greatest comeback kid“
• Richard Craince / Far Eastern Economic Review “Malaysia’s Authoritarian Resurgence“
• Zubaidah Abu Bakar / New Straits Times: “Kuala Terengganu is up in the air for now“
• M. Bakri Musa /Lim Kit Siang: “UMNO reform must begin with Najib Razak“

The first thing to know is the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional, or National Alliance. This multi-party coalition has ruled since Malaysia’s independence in 1957, enjoying a 2/3 parliament majority until 2008. Malaysian politics is traditionally divided along ethnic lines, and the three original coalition partners are the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the Malaysian Chinese Asscociation (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC). There are also several smaller parties.

Most important of these parties is UMNO, holding majority within BN, as the most important party representing the largest ethnic group in Malaysia, the Malays. The Prime Minister of Malaysia has always been from UMNO. One of these prime ministers is Tun Mahathir Mohamad, who ruled the party and Malaysia throughout the 80s and 90s.

In the late 90s, his deputy was Anwar Ibrahim. Unlike the conservative ultranationalist Mahathir Mohamad, Anwar was a young liberal, popular with the public arguing for reform. Among the reforms he wanted was the abolishment of the Bumiputra policy, a policy instated in the 70s bestowing economic and social benefits to Malay nationals which has allowed for the creation of a Malay economic elite in the country. In 1998 Anwar, by then a major threat to Tun Mahathir’s power, was accused of sodomy (a serious offense in the Muslim Malaysia) and corruption and imprisoned. This sparked riots by the so-called ‘Reformasi’ movement. The riots died out, but left a large group of middle class Malaysian discontents.

In 2003 Mahathir Mohamad, then age 78, stepped down from power handing the reins over to Abdullah Badawi, nicknamed Pak Lah (short for Uncle Abdullah). Abdullah has ruled UMNO and as PM since, but has proved a much less competent and popular leader tham Mahathir ever was.

2008 has so far been an important turning point in Malaysian history. First the BN suffered a great defeat in the parliament election, for the first time losing its 2/3 majority in the parliament. The big winner was the new opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat. Later, two minor parties of the BN from the provinces of Sabah and Sarawak on Borneo broke away from the coalition.

Furthermore, Anwar Ibrahim’s ban from participating in Malaysian politics was lifted. His wife withdrew from parliament, creating the need for a by-election through which Anwar Ibrahim regained a seat in the parliament and took the position of opposition leader.

The troubles of the year have given fuel to a strong internal opposition within the UMNO party, and open criticism from its Supreme Council which has called for Abdullah’s resignation. He has promised to hand over power by the year 2010, presumably to his deputy PM Najib Tun Razak, but this has not been enough to quiet dissent. Calls have been made for his resignation already at the next general assembly of UMNO. As of the time I’m writing this, there is yet much speculation about what Abdullah’s next move will be. Rumours range from immediate resignation, through handing over power to any number of possible successors to just clinging to power for as long as he can.

In the meantime, Anwar Ibrahim and the Pakatan Rakyat have been busy. They claim to have a list of as much as 40 MPs ready to defect from BN. In addition there are rumours of the possibility of the BN party Gerakan being ready to defect, and that Pakatan Rakyat will move for a vote of no confidence against the cabinet and form a new government, alternatively taking the matter to the Malaysian king. However, the fact that no move or publication has yet been made may indicate that the PR position might not be as strong as they claim.

One last important event. Important tools of Malaysian autocracy have been a strict media censorship and a law called the Internal Security Act (ISA), which have been the target of much criticism by human rights and freedom of speech groups. Both tools have been widely abused by prime ministers. The latter gives the PM the right to imprison anyone for extended periods of time based on any accusation of threat to national security. Lately, these two were used first to block the independent news source Malaysia Today to Malaysian users, and then to imprison its editor Raja Petra Kamaruddin, who has among other things accused Deputy PM Najib’s wife of connections to the murder of a Mongolian journalist. Several other activists were also arrested under the same act. The power of Malaysian bloggers, which are very numerous, is a big threat to the effectiveness of the media censorship and thus to the autocratic methods of the Malaysian leadership. So far, Abdullah appears unable to do much to limit this power.

Well, that’s my summary of 10 years of Malaysian politics in 10 minutes. Hope it might help clear some of the confusion. Keep in mind that this is just my limited analysis from an overseas vantage point, and that things are changing at a breakneck pace.

Further reading:

• Nachspiel at Polemarchus’: “Anwar Ibrahim returns to the Malaysian Parliament“
• Nachspiel at Polemarchus’: “Sex, lies and capital controls – How Mahathir painted himself into a corner.“
• Tun Mahathir Mohamad’s blog chedet.com
• www.anwaribrahim.com
• Proud 2B Malaysian: “What ifs in october” on what might happen this month.
• Malaysia Today: “Malaysian power struggle continues unabated“
• BBC News: “Malaysian writer in sedition trial“
• The Kuala Lumpur Traveller: “RPK: Deputy PM Najib’s wife Rosmah was at Altantuya’s murder scene.“

To many, Anwar Ibrahim’s arrest and conviction on charges of corruption in 1998 was seen as a decisive victory by then prime minister Mahathir. Likewise, it was by many (my self included) seen as a decisive crackdown on the call for democratic reform by the power of Malaysian autocracy. Anwar’s real return to politics this week turns that short term victory into a long term setback. Not only has Anwar personally been able to return to a position of leadership, but his political ideas of “reformasi”) are still alive, represented by his party Pakatan Rakyat (People’s Justice and are now strongly represented in the parliament. Strong enough to take away the parliament 2/3 majority that the government coalition Barisan Nasional (of which UMNO is the most prominent member) has held since the country’s independence in 1957.

The weakened power of the Malaysian autocracy has further been demonstrated by the fact that new charges of sodomy have been launched, so far without costing Anwar his election. As a member of the governing party, he was easily discharged from the parliament in 1998. As leader of the opposition that might prove significantly more difficult.

As the blog Unspun has commented, it’s not entirely clear whether the election victory comes on behalf of opposition to UMNO or a genuine support for Anwar. This may of course be significant in the long term, but for now it has served Anwar’s and Pakatan Rakyat’s cause. And whatever the real reason – Anwar’s decisive reelection provides renewed hope and energy to all those who still fight for democratic reform in Malaysia.

More about this:

• Far Eastern Economic Review: “A ‘people’s victory’ in Malaysia” by Colum Murphy
• Proud 2B Malaysian: “Final words on Permatang Pauh“
• Unspun: “Anwar’s victory or UMNO’s defeat?“