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What are the French up to? March 31, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Political economy, World politics , comments closed

Just after writing the post on Le Maire’s speech, I came across this news story from AFP, that French president Nicolas Sarkozy is threatening to walk out on the G20 summit unless he gets his way.  According to Bloomberg, what he’s after is:

[…] to give more economic oversight power to the International Monetary Fund, and more financial oversight to an institution that would derive from the Financial Stability Forum, a group that brings together senior representatives of national financial authorities, regulators, central banks and international financial institutions.

The French leader is pushing for the G-20 to endorse accounting rules that reduce boom and bust economic cycles, and to regulate hedge funds and rating agencies. He’s calling for rules that would force banks to disclose traders pay to regulators, which could in turn ask financial institutions to increase reserves if their compensation system encourages risk taking.

The French do seem to be taking a confrontational line to get international actors to work together. This might possibly just be a display from Sarkozy’s side to show his domestic audience that he is taking action, without having to dig too deep into France’s own coffers. His moral-religious rhetoric seems to support this theory.

An EU-US trade war in the making? March 31, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Political economy, World politics , comments closed

I was listening to an LSE podcast of a lecture by French Minister of State for European Affairs Bruno Le Maire, when I heard some surprising statements made. He was talking about how it was important for European nations not to resort to protectionism in the face of the current crisis when he happened to make some interesting, possibly disturbing, statements. He talks about the difference between protecting your industries and protectionism. I can’t spot the difference, can you?  (from approiximate 1h10min into the speech):

[…]so I am not in favour of protectionism, as I just said, I am just in favour of European measures – measures decided at the European level – that would prove to our citizens that we are taking into account their fears and worries and that we are trying to protect our European economy, that we are trying to protect our industries. This is a very difficult balance we have to find, but this is not protectionism. Protectionism means today that the UK would take some very concrete measures just to protect one of its plants, in New Hampshire for example, or London. Or that France would take some very national measures just to protect one of its industries or one of its plants in Normandie or the south of France without taking into account the interest of the UK and Germany and Spain and Italy. That’s the difference between the two ways of protectin industries and protecting our economies[…] (more…)

A new Mussolini or Caesar? March 30, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : World politics , comments closed

The controversial Italian politician Silvio Berlusconi has the wind in his sails as he surges towards increased power in Italy. His right-wing alliance was recently united into the party Il Popolo della Libertà (People of Freedom) under his leadership, and the first thing put on the agenda was giving more power to the Prime Minister.

The Italian premier apparently feels that the parliament is unwieldy and dominated by an “irresponsible opposition“, making changes to the consitution necessary. According to Financial Times, he proclaimed that:

The constitution must be enriched and revitalised … The powers of the prime minister are almost non-existent … The country needs to be governed.

Several commenters speculate that what he wants to achieve is transforming the figurehead position of the Italian president into an active executive position with extended powers like France or the United States.

With personal control of more than 90% of broadcast media through active ownership, he is already the most powerful politician in Italy since Mussolini, and many now seem to be afraid of the emergence of a new authoritarian rule in Italy. Letting the military spearhead a new crackdown on crime is especially worrisome.

I don’t know Italian politics nearly well enough to speculate on the nature of Berlusconi’s plans, but Julius Caesar’s famous crossing of the Rubicon with his legions does come to mind – Alea Iacta Est.

YouTube: A modern-day propaganda leaflet March 21, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Political economy, World politics , comments closed

Ever since WWI, propaganda leaflets dropped behind enemy lines were an important tool in trying to weaken support for whoever was in charge among the local population. It is believed to be an effective tool, which is why it is still in use in conflicts around the world. One of the defining aspects of Obama’s campaign to become president was how well he was able to exploit the new social internet media to his advantage. And he has apparently taken this with im into the White House.

Yesterday, he released a Youtube video aimed at the Iranian people, obviously in an effort to convince Iranians that the United States hopes for peace and does not want to be enemyof Iran. You can see the three-minute video here:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MDklneATBI] (more…)

Hyperlinked data – Tim Berners’ vision for the new internet March 20, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Methods in political science , comments closed

TED talks are very often great videos to watch, but this one should be a particular wet dream for every empirically oriented scientist:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM6XIICm_qo]

Anti-naturalism – the truth about social science? March 20, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Methods in political science , comments closed

Discussing the philosophy of science of the social sciences is always interesting, at least for those of us that are academically nerdy enough. LFC, the author of Howl at Pluto has highlighted the article “Concept Formation in Political Science: An Anti-Naturalist Critique of Qualitative Methodology” by Mark Bevir and Asaf Kedar in which the authors go against the naturalist focus on causal relationships in the social sciences. LFC’s analysis of their work is summed up in the following paragraph:

This all points to a more basic issue: Is there only one correct, philosophically defensible way to do social science? Some scholars believe that only an approach aimed at causal explanation is valid. B&K take the opposite side but adhere to an equivalent exclusiveness. The implication of their position seems quite clear: only one kind of social science will pass muster.

If I interpret LFC correctly, we both agree that both major philosophical ideas of social science has their merit and have contributed to social science as a whole. His post made me interested in reading the entire piece, which in a way surprised me and made me think even if I for the most part disagree with it. (more…)

Trade protectionism rising March 18, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Political economy , comments closed

The World Bank reports today that protectionism in the world is rising as a result of the current crisis. 17 of the G20 nations have enacted protectionist policies despite their pledge in the Washington action plan as recently as November 15 last year. Article 13 of the action plan states:

We underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism and not turning inward in times of financial uncertainty. In this regard, within the next 12 months, we will refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services, imposing new export restrictions, or implementing World Trade Organization (WTO) inconsistent measures to stimulate exports.

(more…)

Najib’s challenges March 17, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Malaysia, World politics , comments closed

The Far Eastern Economic Review carries an interesting article about the challenges faced by the new UMNO leader Najib Tun Razak as he is just now ascending to the throne of the Malaysian ruling party. His predecessor was punished by the electorate for failing to deliever the reforms he had called for. Now Najib is about to take over power when it is at an all time low, and when Malaysia is plagued by new political scandals weekly. Barry Wein from FEER notes that the hereditary nobleman Najib, political hot shot since the age of 22 and son of the founder of the government coalition, seems a very unlikely candidate to be a big reformer and steer Malaysia towards real democracy. From what I’ve learned through following Malaysian politics, I would concur.

NYT polling standards March 17, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Methods in political science , comments closed

I recently found out that the NYT actually have published standards for what polls they are willing to publish. It doesn’t appear to be an entirely new thing (the article is from september 2008), but I found it to be an encouraging surprise. I wish more media were as quality conscious.

The standards document seems to be very basic, but still lay down some important ground rules for minimum requirements for the credibility of a poll. I’d like to see it go into some more detail also on what is required of the questions, but that would of course have to be less concrete and authorative.

10 points to the NYT for a good start.

A tip of the hat to Bård Vegard Solhjell for bringing this to my attention.

EU fails to help its eastern members? March 3, 2009

Posted by Sverre in : Political economy, World politics , comments closed

Eastern Europe has been hit hard by the financial crisis, and were hoping that the EU would be able to help them over the worst of it. Figures presented by Eastern European government claimed that 5 million jobs were in imminent danger of being lost, something that would seriously hit the entire EU and potentially drop a new iron curtaion over Europe. At a summit this Sunday, the EU rejected a bailout plan designed to help Eastern European nations, mostly outside the Euro area. Was it a sign that Western Europe doesn’t want to help their eastern neighbours, or was it just the rejection of a bad plan? If the former, the entire EU project might be about to fail one of its toughest tests yet. (more…)